Generational Theory & Fourth Turning
‘History shapes generations young and then generations as they get older shape history’ Neil Howe
‘History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.’ Mark Twain
‘Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.’ Michael Hopf
There are patterns everywhere and these patterns dictate how most of us experience life both in the micro and macro. Some common patterns most of us are familiar with are:
The seasons of a year: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter.
The pareto principle: for many outcomes, roughly 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
Fibonacci Sequence, Golden Ratio etc
Seasons of Your Life (From Tony Robbins Presentation)
Spring: 0-20: Childhood-Learn/Protection: Creation, Protected, Growth, Absorb, Learn
Summer: 21-41: Young Adulthood - Test & Discover: Test what is learned, Decide what you will value, Time for relation-ships, kids & family
Fall: 42-62: Midlife - Power & Great Harvest: Reaping (or weeping), Time of power, impact, taking charge, Unwinding of some relationships, career
Winter: 63-83: Elderhood - Leadership: Leadership, Mentoring, Slowing Down, Laying foundation for next spring, Clearing next spring
The Four Turnings
Strauss & Howe have theorized one of the major patterns of life - a recurring generation cycle in western history, based on the historical generations they examined as a four stage cycle of social or mood eras, or the four turnings. The theory states that major historical events are associated with these recurring generational archetypes. These generational archetypes lead to a new era called a turning often lasting 20-25 years, in which a new social, political and economic climate exists.
Saeculum is a length of time equal to the potential lifetime of a person. During a Saeculum there is roughly four generations.
Summary of the Patterns:
An average life is 80 years, and consists of four periods of ~20–22 years
Childhood → Young adult → Midlife → Elderhood
A generation is an aggregate of people born every ~20–22 years
Baby Boomers → Gen X → Millennials → Homelanders
Each generation experiences "four turnings" every ~80–90 years
High → Awakening → Unraveling → Crisis
Generational Archetypes:
High: The First Turning is a High, which occurs after a Crisis. During The High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity
Awakening: The Second Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of "self-awareness", "spirituality" and "personal authenticity".
Unraveling: The Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era they say is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing.
Crisis: The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival.
Example of Previous Fourth Turnings
World War II (1939-1945); Great Depression & WWII (1929-1945)
Civil War (1861-1865); (1860-1865)
American Revolution (1775-1783); (1773-1794)
Glorious Revolution (1688-1689); (1675-1704)
The Armada Crisis (1569-1594)
War of the Roses (1459-1487)
Critiques of Fourth Turning
The Fourth Turning is regularly critiqued as being overly broad, not relying on empirical evidence and not applying to every individual in a generation. Many argue that other characteristics, for example geography or political affiliation have a great impact than generational differences.
General Critiques of Fourth Turning
Frank Giancola wrote an article in Human Resource Planning that stated "the emphasis on generational differences is not generally borne out by empirical research, despite its popularity"
"When you get past the rhetorical sound and fury," Michael Grunwald wrote in the Boston Globe, "you realize that as a political document, the declaration signifies practically nothing."
The Last Fourth Turning (1929-1946)
1929 Stock Crash: widespread economic hardship
New Deal: widespread deficit spending
Increased Regulation: Formation of FDIC, SEC, dramatic increase in income taxes
WWII: Major geopoloticial conflict
SO WHAT???
According to Neil Howe
Understand a lot of previously successful investment strategies were dictated by previous generational social, political and economic climate.
For example the crazy run up in very speculative investments such as NFTs, pre revenue businesses, and crazy EBITDA multiples etc - was caused by previous economic climate of negative real interest rates
In the next turning your networks, relationship capital and reputation will become very valuable as we are likely to enter a lower trust society - so having deep bonds is very important.
Focus more on local, less on global. Ask yourself are you in alignment with the community you live in?
Politics will continue to become more polarizing, nearly everything will be viewed thru tribal affiliation ie. blue vs red. People will be less prone to persuasive arguments and will become entrenched in their beliefs.
In the next turning culture and content is likely to become less transgressive, culture becomes propaganda.
How will we know when we’re leaving the fourth turning and entering a new spring season? According to Howe the climax of the fourth turning will not be subtle - it will be absolutely history changing. The structure of society is likely to change in a dramatic fashion. According to Howe this climax catalyst is likely to be either external (which will unite us) like a world war or internal (which will divide us) like a civil war.
Leaders are made in fourth turnings.
The upsides of a fourth turning:
Our current biggest problems are likely to be solved during/right after the fourth turning.
Strong identities are forged through conflict
Tangent: The Necessity of Conflict & Fourth Turning
William James in his The Moral Equivalent of War essay in 1910 explored the idea of whether we could have a shared objective that can elicit the same willingness to sacrifice, and the same disciplined and purposeful ethos, as a military conflict does yet direct them toward entirely peaceful purposes. Can we sustain political unity and civil virtue in the absence of war or a credible threat.
In the graphic novel Watchmen Ozymandias, the smartest man on the planet, ultimately comes to the conclusion that the only thing that can unite humanity, and avert a nuclear apocalypse is an external threat like an alien invasion.
This is why in the past we see so many ‘wars’ announced by the state, whether its a war on poverty, drugs, hate, terrorism etc - is to try to illict the same social habits that war does.
In his 1906 speech James explores the question - if you were to ask americans right now (in 1906) if they would have preferred to have not fought the civil war, James bets that the vast majority would say that the civil war was necessary and without it there is no way society would have progressed or developed as far as it has (in 1906) and America would not be as dynamic, affluent and united as it is (1906); however James notes that if you were to ask the same Americans if they wanted to fight a civil war now, they would all say no. Nobody enjoyed the civil war, but it was something necessary for us to become who we are today.
The fourth turning is not something to be feared or something that can be stopped - however we can prepare and position ourselves to weather the volatility and come out stronger on the other side. The fourth turning is the price paid to enter a new golden age.
Questions:
Have you gone through a hardship that caused a personal transformation? Would you want to go through that again?
Resources:
Tony Robbins talk with Neil Howe
Timcast Podcast Discussing Fourth Turning
Books
Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069
https://www.amazon.ca/Generations-History-Americas-Future-1584/dp/0688119123
The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
https://www.amazon.ca/Fourth-Turning-History-Americas-Rendezvous/dp/0767900464